The MPL Customer Letter - July '26

Market/Trade Information

As part of our commitment to our partners, we share information and try to provide you with some context with periodic reports like the following, with relevant information on the logistics industry.

To keep some overview, we have broken this report down into geographical regions and into bullets.

Although not all trades are in the report, similar trends apply. If you require more detailed info on a specific trade or topic you can always reach out to your usual Manuport contact.

Asia

• The Transpacific rates have been pushed upwards very successfully by the carriers. Current 40’ rates are close to 5-digit number and rising. From Asia to Europe, we have seen a brief (and slow) decrease of rates being quickly followed by another series of rate increases. The rate increases are a combination of typhoons in China, a consequential and persistent congestion in the ports around the Yangtze and Pearl river deltas. This in combination with strong volumes out of Asia is keeping the rate at elevated levels.

• In contrast with the long-haul movements (Transpacific or Asia-Europe), the Intra-Asia market rates remain going downwards. This is mainly because the carriers keep on adding capacity to re-position containers in the area to locations where they can use the empty equipment for the (premium-priced) long hauls.

Europe/Mediterranean/Black Sea

• In the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp severe reefer shortages have occurred which has resulted in many delayed or cancelled bookings. New bookings are almost all with a serious surcharge on existing rates or even on entirely new rates to even get access to the limited equipment in the ports. No clear reasons can be provided for the sudden shortages. Potentially it has to do with many reefer movements to other areas (Asia and Africa) as these markets, for export, can generate much higher ocean freight when comparing to the exports out of Europe.

• Almost all carriers have suspended their activities in the Black Sea to and from Ukrainian ports. The Russian army keeps targeting Ukraine harbors and the carriers have decided that the risk is too high to keep on calling the area. In this period normally the Ukrainian ports should load grain which is harvested. This will impact overall food price levels warns the Ukraine Minister of foreign affairs, Andri Sybiha. Earlier this month, 6 crew members deceased when Russian missiles hit a Turkish bulker ‘Golden Leo’ near the shores of Odessa. 4 other crew members are missing.

• Low water levels on the river Rhine are reaching a critical point which impacts the allowed tonnage greatly. By limiting the accepted tonnage, river vessels want to reduce their draft to prevent getting stuck on the bottom of the river or to prevent damaging their hulls. Alternative routes via rail and road are being used however because of the increased demand, prices and delays have gone up significantly.

North and Central America

• For all cargo to or via Montreal, Canada, several carriers have implemented a ‘low water surcharge’. The surcharge is to cover the low water levels on the St. Lawrence River. These low water levels are reducing the tonnage deployed significantly.

• The Trans-Atlantic trade (from Europe and Med to and from the East coast of the US, Canada and Mexico) is seeing multiple announcements for GRI’s, PSS and other increases. The surge in rates is not due to an increase in cargo flows but is a direct result of capacity being taken away from this trade to service other trades where shipping lines can make higher margins. (MSC operates a similar capacity, in TEU’s, compared to last year however they went from 6 services to only 2 services from N.Europe to the US East Coast.

• US President Trump signed a new program that would impose long term tariffs between 10 and 12.5% on the US’s top sixty trading partners. It is estimated that this will affect 99.4% of all US trade. Countries like China and Japan will be subjected to a 12.5% rate. Countries/Regions like the EU, India, Indonesia, Taiwan, the UK and Canada will be subject to a 10% tariff.

Indian Subcontinent

• Although in June rates already increased drastically, in July the upward trend continued. Bookings are being prebooked 6 weeks in advance to attempt to get space protection on the vessels.

Latin America

• During the football World Cup, the flight capacity between Latin America and North America was seriously boosted. Now things have turned back to ‘normal’, the availability to book air freight cargo also got reduced, resulting in steep rate increases.

• Port and river pilots resumed their activities in Argentina following an agreement with the government. The main maritime terminals in Argentina and the Paraná-Paraguay waterway will be faced with serious delays as a serious backlog was formed. Some vessels were already redirected to Montevideo and to southern Brazil ports.

Red Sea / Middle East

• The tensions in the region of the strait of Hormuz keep on escalating. No signs of any re-opening of the strait of Hormuz are showing. Apart from the commercial impact, 6.000 people remain stuck on the waters of the Persian Gulf and around the affected strait.

• The Port of Jeddah is becoming seriously congested. The local infrastructure both in the port and the assets to execute on carriages are simply insufficient to cover with the influx of containers.

• The Chinese government has successfully negotiated the safe passage of a few crude oil tankers via the Bab el-Mandeb strait. (Connecting the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden on the west coast of the Arabian Peninsula). Beijing was able to negotiate with the Houthi rebels direct. Container vessels still steer clear of the area.

• DP World is planning to build new container terminals on the UAE’s East Coast. DPW want to create an alternative gateway which is outside of the Arabian Gulf (unlike Jebel Ali). It is uncertain if these plans are concrete or if this is only a strategic ‘Plan B’ just in case the conflict with Iran and the closure of the Hormuz Strait develops into a protracted affair.

General Topic

• Xeneta launched their mid-year report. The online benchmark tool, Xeneta, has revisited their own ocean outlook for 2026 which was published in October last year to understand how the first half of the year has played out. They also made a new attempt to predict how the ocean market is most likely to evolve in the second half of 2026. Some key data showing that making predictions in shipping is a dangerous game.

  • Prediction --> Global spot rates were expected to fall -25%. Global long term was expected to fall -10%.

    Reality --> from beginning 2026 to June 2026 global spot rates increased by 107%.

    Global long-term deals went down with 7.1%. (not taking temporary surcharge like PSS, congestion, war risk,… into account on long term agreements).