The MPL Customer Letter - October '26

Asia

• Rates from Asia remain elevated. Trans-Pacific and Asia–Europe westbound markets have softened slightly following a decline in US import demand. However, the usual seasonal rate decline has not materialized, as storms and typhoons across China and Southeast Asia have delayed shipments and increased port congestion. The storms have caused containers to not depart as scheduled. This situation creates a market wherein rates remain stable throughout the region. The Asia Europe contract tendering season is in full swing which often results in carriers wanting to increase rate levels to lock in for a longer period. The earlier lunar new year in 2027 is also not helping a this will compress the window for moving cargo before factory closures.(LNY will start on February 6^th, 2027).

• Ports across South East and South Asia remain under pressure from vessel bunching because of the storms. The situation is compounded by the return of some services through the Suez Canal as ships resume the shorter route instead of sailing via Cape of Good Hope.

• In line with the above, Hapag-Lloyd has suspended new bookings to Manila, Batangas and Subic Bay (Philippines ports) until the end of December, as worsening congestion and a chronic shortage of empty-container storage capacity are disrupting local supply chains. Truckers have reported extraordinary delays returning containers. Local newspaper Daily Tribune has reported that some operators have waited as long as 40 days to return empty boxes.

Europe/Mediterranean/Black Sea

• CMA CGM has announced a War Risk Surcharge from and to the ports connecting the Black Sea. The new surcharge will start, in Europe, as from November 9^th. For other countries it is only December 1^st. With this WRS of $35 / TEU CMA wants to cover a part of their higher costs to keep on operating in the area.

North and Central America

• The US government has postponed (again) the port charges on Chinese-built-vessels. The extension is 2 months this time around. The taxes were initially invoked on October 14^th last year. After a short period the taxes were paused for one year on November 9^th. With this new extension, the US government is buying some extra time for on-going negotiations. In the meantime, the Chinese shipbuilders have confirmed that they have obtained 82% (counted in capacity) of all orders for newbuilds in the first 9 months of this year.

• The transatlantic westbound rates have seen a serious increase. Rates, when comparing year on year, went up by 85%. Strong demand and less capacity are driving this increase.

Red Sea & Middle East

• In the Persian gulf a tanker was attacked. The ship was hit by two unknown projectiles. The incident happened about 72 sea miles East of the Saudia Ras Al Khafji. This is one of the many incidents on commercial vessels throughout the last weeks in the area. According to the available maritime data, the traffic is 80% down compared to other years.

• More and more carriers are passing through the Suez Canal sailing via the Red Sea area to guarantee a shorter and more stable transit time on the East-West-routings. According to Alphaliner 70% of the normal capacity is going through Suez again for the Far East -Med trade and 58% for the Far East – North Europe trade.

Latin America

• The Panama Canal Authorities have restored the last-minute transit reservation for ships, easing one of the restrictions introduced. This does not mean that the issues with limited capacity have been resolved however the current situation seems to be getting better.

General Topic

• Orderbook soars past 15 Mteu. According to Alphaliner the global container vessel orderbook has breached 15Mteu. Before end of the year 40 ‘megamax’ newbuilding contracts from Maersk, YM, CMA CGM and MSC will push the global pipeline close to 16Mteu in the last quarter of 2026. The majority of these ships, just shy of the equivalent of 6 Mteu will be delivered in 2028. 2027 with 3.5 Mteu and 2029 with 4.4 Mteu are also far above the average of 1.8 Mteu of the past 5 years.

• The disruptions in Ocean shipping do not trigger a large-scale switch to airfreight. Although sailing schedules remain uncertain, the high cost of energy keeps a lot of the cargo away from airfreight solutions.